The BLS released the August CPI figures about an hour ago. The CPI-W increased to 223.326 in August from 222.686 in July, an increase of 0.3%.
The average of the July 2011 CPI-W amount of 222.686 and the August 2011 CPI-W amount of 223.326 is 223.006. When compared to the average for July through September 2008, the baseline, 215.495, this would generate a COLA of about 3.49%.
We still need the September 2011 CPI-W, which is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, October 19, at 8:30 AM EDT. As soon as that amount is release then we will know what the COLA amount should be, under current law. Social Security usually issues a press release to coincide with the October CPI-W report actually announcing the COLA.
Personally, I think the CPI-W will continue to increase in September. The increase in the August 2011 CPI-W was mostly generated by large increases in food prices, which I do not see decreasing. It was also in spite of a 0.5% decrease in gasoline prices in August.
Full report later.